This guide uses testable rule assumptions and does not infer any platform’s implementation from its name. It is educational material, not betting advice.
Key definition
Check record completeness first: timestamps, cards, rule version, missing rounds and duplicates all affect statistics.
How to verify it
Counts, proportions, streak length and moving averages are descriptive tools that can reveal entry errors or regime changes.
Limits and conclusion
After observing a deviation, account for sampling variation and avoid choosing the metric only after seeing the result.
Practical checklist
Describing history and predicting the future are separate tasks. Prediction must be tested on later, untouched data.
Practical checklist
- Check record completeness first: timestamps, cards, rule version, missing rounds and duplicates all affect statistics.
- After observing a deviation, account for sampling variation and avoid choosing the metric only after seeing the result.
- Fix the rules, preserve a complete record, separate training from testing, and only then ask whether a model adds information beyond a simple baseline.