This guide uses testable rule assumptions and does not infer any platform’s implementation from its name. It is educational material, not betting advice.
Key definition
Accuracy needs a clear denominator: which rounds were predicted, skipped, failed or produced no output.
How to verify it
Predictions must be created before outcomes and carry tamper-evident timestamps to rule out backfilling.
Limits and conclusion
Beyond headline accuracy, examine class imbalance, confidence intervals, calibration and improvement over a simple baseline.
Practical checklist
An independent reviewer should be able to recompute metrics from the complete log. Screenshots and selected hits are not evidence.
Practical checklist
- Accuracy needs a clear denominator: which rounds were predicted, skipped, failed or produced no output.
- Beyond headline accuracy, examine class imbalance, confidence intervals, calibration and improvement over a simple baseline.
- Fix the rules, preserve a complete record, separate training from testing, and only then ask whether a model adds information beyond a simple baseline.