This guide uses testable rule assumptions and does not infer any platform’s implementation from its name. It is educational material, not betting advice.
Key definition
A run of outside results does not make the next goal “due” unless the draw mechanism itself changes with history.
How to verify it
Small-sample proportions vary widely, so a few dozen rounds can make chance look like a trend.
Limits and conclusion
Remembering hits and overlooking misses creates selective memory; a complete log is more reliable.
Practical checklist
Trying many indicators will eventually produce an apparently significant one. Correct for multiple testing and retest on new data.
Practical checklist
- A run of outside results does not make the next goal “due” unless the draw mechanism itself changes with history.
- Remembering hits and overlooking misses creates selective memory; a complete log is more reliable.
- Fix the rules, preserve a complete record, separate training from testing, and only then ask whether a model adds information beyond a simple baseline.